Giuliani Still Lags in Early GOP Primary States
By: Administrative Account | Source: CNSNews.com
November 8, 2007 8:47AM EST

By Fred Lucas
CNSNews.com Staff Writer
November 08, 2007

(CNSNews.com) - The national frontrunner for the GOP presidential nomination still has a lot of running to do, analysts say.

Rudy Giuliani leads the pack of Republican contenders in almost every national poll, but he is running second place in New Hampshire and third place in Iowa, according to Real Clear Politics' polling average.

Winning candidates in those two states, which hold primary contests in early January, traditionally gain momentum in their quest for their party's nomination.

Last week, Giuliani, the former mayor of New York City, explained his strategy in looking beyond New Hampshire and Iowa as he accepted endorsements from Republican Sens. Norm Coleman of Minnesota and Christopher "Kit" Bond of Missouri.

"Missouri is going to be enormously important for us," Giuliani said, referring to Bond. "Missouri is a Feb. 5 state - that means an early primary state, one in which we want to do everything we can to win and do as well as we can. Those early primary states are obviously critical to who gets nominated on the Republican side."

Referring to Coleman, he said, "Norm is going to be a tremendous asset to our campaign just like he is a tremendous asset to his state, Minnesota, a Feb. 5 state as well. ... From our point of view, these are enormously important endorsements."

Whether Feb. 5 can still be considered early under the 2008 election calendar is questionable, considering that seven states - including Wyoming, Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina and Florida - will hold their nominating contests in January, with as many as 343 delegates to the Republican National Convention up for grabs. (See Primary Schedule)

That means a good deal of winnowing will likely happen before another 19 states hold their Republican primaries on Feb. 5. In those contests, candidates will compete for more than 1,000 delegates, and those states include California, Illinois, New Jersey and New York.

Giuliani is well-positioned in two of the states, leading comfortably in both California and New Jersey.

Yet Giuliani is running ahead in just two states with January primaries, which means he is pinning much of his hope on Super Tuesday (Feb. 5).

"If Giuliani's strategy succeeds, it will be a first," said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. "Yes, the Bill Clinton '92 model is partly applicable, but never has a candidate lost all the early contests yet come back to win in the end."

In Bill Clinton's first presidential campaign, he skipped the Iowa campaign (as did most Democrats who didn't bother challenging Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin's presidential ambitions that year). But Clinton came in a surprising second in New Hampshire and he used the momentum to win big on Super Tuesday.

"The Giuliani folks are nervous about that strategy, and thus they are working hard now on both New Hampshire and South Carolina, hoping to do better than expected in one or both," Sabato said. "Iowa is probably a write-off for Rudy."

Endorsements in those early states are split. Take Minnesota and Missouri, for example, where Giuliani touted the support of Coleman and Bond.

In Minnesota, Gov. Tim Pawlenty is backing Arizona Sen. John McCain's bid for the presidency. Meanwhile, Missouri Gov. Matt Blunt is one of three national co-chairs for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's presidential campaign.

Romney is leading in both Iowa and New Hampshire. In South Carolina, which holds its primary on Jan. 19 next year, the state's senior Republican, Sen. Lindsey Graham, is a McCain-backer, while junior Sen. Jim DeMint is supporting Romney.

Still, Giuliani and Romney are locked in a dead heat there for first place, with Romney holding a slight lead of 19.3 percent to Giuliani's 19 percent, in the Real Clear Politics average. McCain is lagging in fourth place in the state behind former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson.

Romney also holds a six-point lead over Giuliani in Michigan, which holds its primary on Jan. 15.

Giuliani is leading Thompson in Nevada (a Jan. 19 primary), according to a Mason-Dixon poll conducted last month. Giuliani also leads in Florida, which votes on Jan. 29, with a commanding 30.8 percent, compared to Thompson's second place finish of 19.8 percent in the Real Clear Politics average.

"If Rudy does poorly in all contests before Florida on Jan. 29, he'll have almost everything riding on a good showing in the Sunshine State," Sabato said. "That could give him momentum for Feb. 5. If he does poorly in Florida, then he almost certainly isn't going to be the nominee."

The Democratic contest apparently is not as suspenseful, as New York Sen. Hillary Clinton leads in all national polls and in every state by a comfortable margin - though the race among Democrats is somewhat closer in Iowa than elsewhere, polls show.

Giuliani's roadmap for victory is achievable, said John Bibby, political science professor at the University of Wisconsin. But he has to do well in early states if he doesn't come in first.

"The strategy is unconventional, but it's plausible he could succeed," Bibby told Cybercast News Service. "If he flops in one of the early states, he could be hurt badly going into Feb. 5."

"I think he would be in good shape going into Michigan, but South Carolina is a tougher area for him," Bibby continued. "Demographically, Michigan has more moderate Republicans than South Carolina. But Giuliani might have calmed a few storms with the Pat Robertson endorsement."

Robertson, founder of the Christian Coalition, endorsed Giuliani Wednesday, a significant development for a candidate dogged over his pro-abortion, anti-gun, pro-homosexual rights stances.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's second place showing in Iowa polls means he can't be ignored, Sabato said. But even if Huckabee manages to win Iowa, it would be difficult for him to raise enough money to capitalize on the win, said Sabato.

With such a wide open primary, the nomination battle could go all the way to the Republican National Convention next September in Minneapolis, Sabato said. A GOP nomination hasn't been contested all the way to the convention since 1976.

"There is a small chance it could happen on the GOP side, since no candidate appears to have anything close to a lock on the affections of the party," Sabato said.

"It would be fun and, potentially, Americans would watch and learn a once-in-a-lifetime civics lesson. If the convention weren't too divisive, it might even give the Republican candidate a boost for the fall campaign," he added.

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