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U.S. December Consumer Confidence Declines to 91.3 From 92.5
By: Administrative Account | Source: Bloomberg.com
December 30, 2003 10:49AM EST


Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer confidence slipped in December from the highest level in 14 months as more Americans said jobs were hard to find, a private research group reported.

The New York-based Conference Board's measure of attitudes toward the economy was 91.3 in December, compared with a revised 92.5 in November. The percentage of people who saw work hard to get rose to 32.6 from 29.6.

Two years into a recovery that began in November 2001, the economy is only now beginning to add jobs, averaging about 82,000 a month since August. More hiring boosts incomes and may lead to increased spending, economists said.

``Until we get to the point where we're generating a whole bunch of new jobs, it's not likely we're going to see confidence levels where they were a few years ago,'' said Steven Wood, president of Insight Economics LLC in Danville, California, before the report.

Economists had expected the index from the Conference Board to rise to 91.8 from the originally reported 91.7, according to the median of 48 forecasts.

The six-month outlook increased to 102.9, the highest since June 2002, as consumers became more optimistic a stronger economy would lead to better job prospects. In November, the outlook measure rose to 100.1.

The survey period ended Dec. 16, Conference Board spokesman Randy Poe said. The U.S. raised its terror alert to ``high,'' the second-highest level, on Dec. 21.

November's reading was the highest since 93.7 in September 2002, the last time it had exceeded 90. The index had peaked at a record 144.7 in January 2000, when the economy was in a record expansion, and had dropped to 61.4 in March of this year, when the U.S. invaded Iraq.

The index measuring sentiment about the current economy fell to 73.9 from 81 in November.

``People were hoping we should see some robustness'' in employment now, said Delos Smith, an economist at the Conference Board, in a televised interview with Bloomberg News. ``You haven't seen any real pickup. They find it disappointing.''

Fed Studies

The proportion of people in the survey who said business conditions were good slipped to 18.7 percent from 19.9 percent, while the share who saw business conditions as bad rose to 24.4 percent from 23.6 percent.

Federal Reserve studies have shown that confidence indicators don't always predict changes in spending patterns. Consumer confidence tends to track the labor market while spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy, is more tied to a person's view of his future wealth.

The percentage expecting their incomes to improve in the next six months rose to 20.7, the highest since August, from 20.2, the Conference Board found. The proportion of people who said more jobs would become available to them rose to 21.7 percent, the highest since April 2002, from 18.5 percent.

Consumer Spending

``The economy is on very solid footing right now,'' said former Federal Reserve Governor Laurence Meyer, a visiting scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, last week. ``We have a lot of momentum in final demand and at the same time we have an inventory rebound under way.''

Consumer spending in November rose 0.4 percent, the Commerce Department reported last week. The gain was greater than that of the previous two months, indicating that shoppers are still supporting economic growth, economists said.

Personal incomes rose 0.5 percent, according to the Commerce Department report. That was the biggest increase since June 2002.

``We're just very pleased with the sales momentum in our business,'' Jeff Forgan, chief financial officer of Sharper Image Corp., said Friday. ``We've been on track to have a record year this year and the holidays turned out to be no exception.''

Purchasing Plans

Sharper Image, a seller of products including reclining massage chairs, said sales for the Dec. 1 to Dec. 24 period were 30 percent higher than a year earlier.

Women's clothing chain Chico's FAS Inc. said same-store sales this month may rise as much as 21 percent.

Amazon.com Inc., the world's biggest Internet retailer, said this holiday season was its busiest ever as the company shipped more than 99 percent of orders in time for Christmas. A single- day record of more than 2.1 million units ordered, or a rate of 24 items per second, was set during this holiday season, Amazon.com said, without specifying the day.

The number of the Conference Board's survey respondents who said they would buy a car over the next six months rose to 6 percent from 5.8 percent in November. Some 3 percent expect to buy a home, the same as last month, the Conference Board said.

The number of people who said they expected to buy a new appliance slipped to 28 percent from 29 the month before.

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