Concerns Mount That France May Vote Against EU Charter
By: Administrative Account | Source: CNSNews.com
April 27, 2005 6:05AM EST

By Patrick Goodenough
CNSNews.com International Editor
April 27, 2005

(CNSNews.com) - Alarmed by opinion polls showing growing opposition among French voters to the European Union constitution, European leaders are warning that failure of a referendum on the issue next month could seriously undermine the E.U. "project."

All 25 member states must ratify the constitution - either by referendum or parliamentary vote - for it to come into force, and so far, only six have done so.

In a French poll published Friday, 62 percent of respondents said they would reject the constitution in the May 29 referendum. The "no" figure is up from around 50-51 per cent just a month ago.

The trend is a particular setback for President Jacques Chirac, who, along with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder is a leading proponent of a strong and unified E.U.

The European constitution provides for more efficient decision-making and creates the posts of president and foreign minister, regarded as crucial if the E.U. is to become a more important player in the international community.

Chirac and Schroeder held talks Paris Tuesday, then issued a joint plea for French voters to support the constitution.

"If we vote 'no,' we will be responsible for interrupting 50 years of European construction," Chirac said, while Schroeder urged against letting "this historic opportunity to advance Europe slip by."

In a statement, the two said implementation of the 465-article charter "will be an important step to confirm Europe's weight on the international scene and to reinforce its capacity to act in the service of peace and security."

Germany and France are the largest countries in the union and generally are considered the driving force behind the vision of the E.U. as a superpower. The two also spearheaded opposition in Europe to the U.S.-led war against Iraq in 2003.

Two days before the Chirac-Schroeder meeting, an even starker warning came from the former president of the E.U.'s executive Commission, Romano Prodi, under whose tenure the constitution was drafted.

A "no" vote in France, Prodi told a French newspaper, would not only be a "catastrophe" for France, but mean "the fall of Europe."

Other European leaders have also expressed alarm at the trend in France. Meeting in Finland at the weekend, the presidents of Portugal, Austria, Latvia and Finland urged French voters to support the constitution.

The strength of the "no" camp is attributed to varied concerns on the left and right, including worries about job losses, suspicions of an "Anglo-Saxon" free market plot, and fears that the constitution will give too much power to the E.U. at the expense of national institutions.

Some opposition is tied to the view that Turkey should not be allowed to join the union in the future. Not only would Turkey be the union's only Muslim member, it would also replace France as the second-largest member.

What will a 'no' vote mean?

Pro-Europe politicians have warned that a "no" vote by a key player like France could have a spin-off effect on other countries' referendums. A vote is planned in the Netherlands for June 1, and polls there are indicating 52-58 percent in favor of a "no" vote.

In the Netherlands, polls suggest the biggest problem may be voter apathy, although concerns about the implications of the charter are also being aired.

Dutch Socialist Party leader Jan Marijnissen in a commentary published last week called the constitution "a monstrosity" that would turn the country into "a powerless province" of Europe.

Supporters argue the constitution will bring more democracy and streamline decision-making, according to Dutch media.

Opinions differ over exactly what a French or Dutch rejection of the charter would mean.

Some euroskeptics see statements like Prodi's as scare-mongering - an attempt to frighten French voters into voting for the constitution so as not to jeopardize the entire E.U. project.

E.U trade commissioner Peter Mandelson, a supporter of the constitution, said in recent interviews rejection by a member state would lead to stagnation but not necessarily mean the E.U. would collapse.

It's generally accepted that a failure in France or any other country would compel the E.U. to continue operating under a previous treaty, signed in Nice in 2000.

But a contingency plan does exist: an appendix to the constitution treaty says that if four-fifths of member states have ratified the document while others have encountered difficulties in doing so, the matter will be referred to the 25 heads of state.

In the Netherlands, a debate has emerged about whether the country should even bother to hold its referendum in June if France votes "no."

And in Britain, where Prime Minister Tony Blair has promised to hold a referendum in the first half of 2006 should Labor win next week's election, there has been speculation that the referendum plan would be dropped altogether if France votes "no."

Apart from France and the Netherlands, other countries planning referendums include Poland, Luxembourg, Portugal, the Czech Republic, Britain and Denmark.

So far six member states have ratified the constitution - Lithuania, Hungary, Slovenia, Italy and Greece by parliamentary vote, and Spain by referendum last February.

Germany, the largest member state, has decided to avoid a referendum and will put the charter to lawmakers for approval next month.

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