Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar had its biggest decline against the euro in a week on concern the U.S. won't attract enough capital to narrow its record current account deficit, even as the economy expands at the fastest pace since 1984.
The dollar failed to rally after government and industry reports showed durable goods orders in the U.S. rose, jobless claims fell and an index of Chicago-area factory activity rose to the highest in almost nine years. In contrast to the U.S., the euro region's current account surplus widened in September, the European Central Bank said today.
``Traders don't feel comfortable sleeping at night with a big long dollar position,'' said Shahab Jalinoos, a currency strategist at ABN Amro Holding NV in London.
In New York trading, the dollar fell to $1.1919 per euro at 12:20 p.m. from $1.l792 late yesterday. The dollar is down 14 percent versus the euro this year and today dropped against all but four of 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg News.
The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the dollar compares with a basket of six currencies, fell to 90.62 from 91.46. The index has shed 11 percent this year. In other trading, the yen rose against the dollar after Merrill Lynch & Co. raised its forecasts for the Japanese currency.
The U.S. current account, the broadest measure of trade and investment, was $138.7 billion in the second quarter, the most recent figures available. By contrast, Europe's surplus widened to 7.7 billion euros in September, the ECB said today. Japan also has a surplus.
Deficits
``Clearly the growth story is not motivating foreign exchange markets,'' said John McCarthy, director of foreign exchange trading at ING Financial Markets LLC in New York. ``The more broad-based macroeconomic issues of deficits here and general concern about fiscal issues here, in particular with the Middle East, are going to be with us for a while.''
Tax cuts, increases in military spending and a growing need to fund social programs associated with an aging population are widening the U.S. budget deficit. Wall Street firms including Merrill have forecast the gap will be a record $600 billion in the fiscal year starting Oct. 1, from $374 billion a year earlier.
In a move that may add to the deficit, the U.S. House of Representatives approved a $395 billion Medicare bill to help the elderly afford prescription drugs.
`Marked Deterioration'
U.S. gross domestic product expanded 8.2 percent in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said yesterday. That compared with a previous estimated of 7.2 percent reported on Oct. 30.
``The figures coming out of the American economy are very positive,'' Mervyn Davies, chief executive officer of Standard Chartered Plc, said at a British Chamber of Commerce luncheon in Hong Kong. ``Everyone hopes that will continue, but we have seen a marked deterioration and weakness in the dollar.''
Standard Chartered was the most accurate forecaster of exchange rates in the third quarter among 56 companies surveyed by Bloomberg News. Davies said he expects the dollar to extend its slide. It fell to a record low of $1.1980 per euro last week.
``The euro won't weaken against the dollar,'' Bernd Pischetsrieder, chief executive officer of Volkswagen AG, said in a televised interview with Bloomberg News. ``Whether it's $1.15 or $1.25, it won't come back to parity.'' The euro's advance will contribute to a decline in U.S. sales next year, he said.
Thanksgiving Holiday
Traders said reaction also was muted on the day before the Thanksgiving Day holiday in the U.S.
``The numbers are outstanding and very positive for the U.S. economy,'' said Brian Taylor, head currency trader at Manufacturers & Traders Trust in Buffalo, New York, which has $50 billion in assets under management. ``However, liquidity and volumes are really low, given the holiday, with very little movement. Real money is out of the market today.''
Orders for durables, or items made to last at least three years, rose 3.3 percent in October, following a 2.1 percent gain in September, the Commerce Department reported in Washington. Economists expected a 0.7 percent rise, the median estimate in a survey of economists by Bloomberg News prior to the report.
Applications for initial unemployment insurance fell to 351,000 in the week ended Saturday, as companies retain and add workers in an expanding economy, the Labor Department reported. The claims were lower than the revised 362,000 of the prior week and were the lowest since 339,000 for the Jan. 20, 2001 week.
Against the yen, the dollar was weakened to 109.08 from 109.40. Merrill said in a report that it expects the yen to strengthen more against the dollar in 2004 than it previously forecast as the Japanese economy pulls out of a 12-year slump.
The Japanese currency will end next year at 90 per dollar, that's stronger than a earlier prediction of 98. Merrill, in a note to investors, also said it predicts the pound will advance more than previously estimated against the U.S. currency.
The pound will trade at $1.77 in March, up from a forecast of $1.67. By September, the U.K. currency will strengthen to $1.85, up from a prediction of $1.66.
