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Poll: Dean tops Kerry in Massachusetts
By: Administrative Account | Source: Boston Herald
November 24, 2003 11:19AM EST




HERALD POLL/by David R. Guarino

Monday, November 24, 2003

Sen. John F. Kerry is facing a backyard beating at the hands of presidential primary nemesis Howard Dean, losing his own state by a staggering 9 points in a new Boston Herald poll.

Dean, who already stole the primary leads from a faltering Kerry in New Hampshire and Iowa, would pummel the hometown senator 33 percent to 24 percent if voting were held today.

Worse for Kerry, Dean leads here by riding the longtime senator's supposed core base - liberals, Democrats and older voters.

The fact that he can come into Massachusetts, John Kerry's home state, where Democrats are so familiar with the senator, and still have a 9-point lead really speaks to the strength of the Dean campaign and his core messages, said Herald pollster R. Kelly Myers.

The Herald poll of 424 probable Democratic primary voters, taken by RKM Research and Communications Wednesday through Friday, is the first to show Kerry outright losing his home state. It has a plus or minus 4.8 percent margin of error.

In head-to-head matchups, Kerry and Dean show it is a two-man race in the Bay State, though 21 percent said they're undecided.

Retired Gen. Wesley K. Clark drew 7 percent, followed by Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman at 4 percent, and U.S. Rep. Richard Gephardt at 3 percent. The other candidates polled at 2 percent or lower.

Contrary to popular opinion that Dean does best among Generation Xers and younger, the poll shows Dean attracting overwhelming support among more solid, older voters. Dean wins by 18 points among those 55 to 64 and by 14 points among those over 65.

The two were virtually tied, Dean at 28 percent and Kerry at 27 percent, among voters under 34, the poll found.

Those older voters and more liberal voters who are most familiar with Kerry and, on the Democratic side, have supported him consistently in the past, have now moved to Dean, Myers said.

Dean's lead is steady among both genders and among registered Democrats and independents.

But the former Vermont governor draws his staunchest support from self-professed liberals, who chose him by a 42 percent to 20 percent margin over Kerry.

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