May 12 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade deficit grew in March to a record $46 billion as the highest oil prices in more than two decades and increased consumer spending boosted imports.
The gap follows a deficit of $42.1 billion in February, the Commerce Department reported in Washington. Imports and exports surged to all-time highs, and the deficit with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries was the biggest ever.
Concern over supplies drove up the price of crude oil in March, while tax refunds, low interest rates and an improved labor market helped lift demand for cars, electronic goods and other products made outside the U.S. Accelerating global growth and a weaker dollar contributed to a rise in U.S. exports.
``It's difficult to see the trade deficit narrowing significantly given the strength in U.S. demand and the rise in energy prices,'' said Adrienne Warren, a senior economist at Scotia Capital Inc. in Toronto.
Import prices rose in April for a seventh month, led by higher costs for iron, steel and other raw materials, the Labor Department reported. The 0.2 percent increase in the import price index followed a 0.8 percent gain in March. The index is up 2.4 percent over April 2003, the biggest 12-month gain in a year.
The March trade gap with China widened to $10.4 billion from $8.3 billion. Imports rose to $13.8 billion, while exports from the Asian nation were a record $3.4 billion. China has been under pressure from the U.S. and other members of the World Trade Organization to boost imports and curtail exports to bring trade into better balance.
Effect on Growth
Chief executives, including Ericsson AB's Carl-Henric Svanberg and Nucor Corp.'s Daniel DiMicco, say China, the world's seventh-largest economy, needs to slow growth in order to sustain the expansion and keep it from overheating. Premier Wen Jiabao plans to cut growth to 7 percent this year from 9.1 percent in 2003.
The wider trade deficit has caused economists to adjust their estimates for economic growth from January through March. Jan Hatzius, a senior economist at Goldman, Sachs & Co. in New York, said the widening ``takes away some of the potential upward revisions'' to first-quarter gross domestic product when revised numbers are published May 27.
Before the report, Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital, expected construction and corporate spending and inventory additions to boost growth to a 4.7 percent annual rate. He, along with economists from Morgan Stanley, now forecast gross domestic product rising 4.4 percent, up from the 4.2 percent annual rate the Commerce Department reported April 30 in an advance estimate.
Dollar's Decline
A trade deficit subtracts from GDP because it is assumed the imports are replacing domestic production.
A decline in the value of the U.S. dollar has lifted demand at U.S. exporters and made imports more expensive. The dollar has lost 7.4 percent of its value in the 12 months that ended March 31 against a trade-weighted index of currencies from the nation's biggest trading partners. The decline made U.S. products cheaper abroad, generating overseas sales at companies such as United Technologies Corp.
Against the euro today, the dollar weakened to $1.1895 per euro from $1.1871 late yesterday, marking the biggest drop in a week.
Economists had expected the deficit to widen to $43 billion for the month compared with a previously reported deficit of $42.1 billion in February, according to the median estimate of 67 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.
Imports to the U.S. rose 4.6 percent for the month to $140.7 billion, the biggest increase since March 1993, when the U.S. was pulling out of a recession. Exports rose 2.6 percent in March to $94.7 billion, including record shipments of automobiles and parts, consumer goods and industrial supplies. Exports of capital goods were the highest since May 2001.
Oil Imports
Autos and auto parts imports rose 3.1 percent in March to $19 billion, the highest ever. The U.S. imported $31.6 billion worth of industrial supplies and materials, which include oil, also a record.
The value of U.S. oil imports rose in March to $10.2 billion from $8.4 billion the previous month. The average price of oil was $30.64 a barrel, the highest since February 1983, according to the Commerce Department. That helped widen the deficit with OPEC to $5.6 billion, the largest on record.
Stocks and the dollar fell after the trade figures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 89 points, or 0.9 percent, at 10:55 a.m. in New York. The prices of crude is raising concern that higher energy costs will slow the expansion and increase companies costs.
``Higher oil prices are clearly a concern,'' said Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Michael Moskow in an interview on CNBC. ``These prices have gone up quite rapidly now, and those inflationary pressures are pushing through the economy.'' Still, ``in order to have this as a serious problem on a long-term basis, you'd have to see that pace of increase continue over time and I don't think that's going to happen.''
OPEC
Dallas Fed President Robert McTeer, in an opinion piece in yesterday's Wall Street Journal, said the economy is strong enough to withstand the increase in energy costs.
Oil and gasoline prices rose ahead of OPEC's planned cut in production quotas in April. OPEC produces more than a third of the world's oil.
World oil demand this year will rise the most since 1988 as economic growth accelerates and consumption surges in China, the International Energy Agency said today.
Imports of consumer goods rose 9 percent to a record $31.3 billion, led by televisions and other electronic goods.
Consumer Spending
Consumer spending accelerated in the January-March quarter, growing at a 3.8 percent annual pace, compared with 3.2 percent in the final three months of 2003. Job gains and tax refunds contributed to the increase, which included a March rise in retail sales that was the biggest in a year.
Sales of Toyota Motor Corp.'s Lexus luxury cars, which are imported, grew 20 percent in March from a year earlier, led by the RX 330 SUV and ES 300 sport sedan, the company said. Toyota's net income for the fourth quarter, which ended March 31, more than doubled to a record $10.2 billion.
Imports of capital goods rose 3.4 percent to $26.9 billion, led by a surge in civilian aircraft.
Airbus SAS, the world's largest maker of aircraft, yesterday said it received an order for 15 planes from Spirit Airlines Inc. in the U.S. and options for 50 more in a contract potentially worth $4 billion to the manufacturer, based in Toulouse, France.
Semiconductors
Demand for semiconductors has also increased imports. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world's largest supplier of made-to-order computer chips, said March sales rose 44 percent from a year ago. The U.S. accounts for almost three-quarters of the company's sales. April sales rose 35 percent to a monthly record, the Hsinchu, Taiwan, company said last week.
Exports of automobiles and parts rose 2.9 percent to a record $7.2 billion. Exports of industrial supplies and materials rose 6.3 percent to a record $16.9 billion. Foreign businesses also bought $27.7 billion worth of capital goods, almost a three- year high.
Exports of consumer goods rose 6.8 percent in March to a record $8.6 billion, led by pharmaceuticals.
A report earlier this month from the Institute for Supply Management, the trade organization for purchasing managers, showed more manufacturers were boosting exports in March and April than in any two months since June and July 1988.
Expanding Trade
United Technologies, the maker of Pratt & Whitney jet engines, Carrier air conditioners and Otis elevators, last week raised its 2004 revenue forecast by $1 billion to $35 billion, the second increase this year. The Hartford, Connecticut-based company gets more than half its sales from outside the U.S. A higher euro and improving global economy are driving results, Chief Executive Officer George David said.
Global trade will rise 8.6 percent this year and 10 percent in 2005, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said yesterday, raising its November estimates from 7.8 percent and 9.1 percent. The Paris-based group comprises 30 industrialized nations.