Possibly spooked by the economy, consumers are spending less this Halloween, leaving analysts divided over whether they're saving money for the holiday shopping season or retailers are going to get grinched again.

Spending on costumes, candy and decorations will drop about 5 percent to $41.77 per customer this year, compared with $44.20 in 2002, according to the National Retail Federation's Halloween Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey.

That $2.43 difference may seem minimal. But in a broader retail realm, it's a threat, said Richard Feinberg, director of the Center for Customer-Driven Research at Purdue University.

"Sure, it's a big deal," he said. "Two dollars less per person per market area is millions and millions of dollars to somebody. And I would expect that $2 (difference) they are predicting is really much larger than that."

That mood of spending less is likely a precursor of what is to come in November as the holiday shopping season kicks off, he said.

"Right now, consumers are very cautious . . . ," said Feinberg. "Retail executives have been way too optimistic about what is happening."

But the retail federation, which advocates for U.S. retailers, contends a $2 drop translates to a virtually unchanged spending pattern, said spokeswoman Ellen Tolley.

"Really, if it would have been way down, that would have been cause for concern," she said.

The biggest spending cut came in the decoration category, which the retail federation says is a "natural occurrence."

People spend several years building up their collections, Tolley said, "and now most people have Halloween decorations."

"We feel there is no cause for concern," she said. "Halloween is still a big holiday for retailers."

The federation is being similarly optimistic about the holiday retail season, predicting consumers will spend 3.5 percent more this year than in 2002. Other surveys show varied levels of spending, from virtually flat to as much as a 7 percent increase.

Last year, consumers spent about 1 percent more than in 2001, which analysts tagged as a disappointment.

"(This year), all the forecasts are upward," said James Lowry, a professor of marketing at Ball State University who specializes in retail. "The economy is trending that way. My feeling is that ($2 cut in) Halloween spending is no big deal."

People are just waiting for Christmas, he said.