Former U.S. Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina leads a list of potential Democratic presidential candidates while Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack holds fourth place, trailing Edwards by 20 points in an early test of support among likely Iowa caucus participants.
A new Iowa Poll conducted for The Des Moines Register shows that Edwards, the runner-up in the Iowa Democratic caucuses two years ago and a frequent visitor to the state since then, is the choice of 30 percent of Iowans who say they are likely to take part in the January 2008 caucuses.
U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York follows on Edwards' heels with 26 percent in the Iowa Poll.
Experts say it's the first poll showing anyone besides Clinton as the preferred Democrat in the race for the White House.
U.S. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, who used his victory in the 2004 caucuses as a springboard to the Democratic presidential nomination that year, is a distant third in the Iowa Poll with 12 percent.
Vilsack, despite getting good marks in previous polls for the job he's done in two terms as governor, receives relatively tepid support from his home state in the Register's new presidential poll, taken May 29 to June 1. Ten percent of likely caucus participants say that if the caucuses were held today, they would vote for him.
Five other potential Democratic presidential candidates listed in the poll bring up the rear with no more than 3 percent each.
The poll has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.
Presidential material?
University of North Carolina political science professor James Stimson said the poll results likely would cause short-term problems for Vilsack, especially in raising money. News that Vilsack is not the favorite in his own state will make potential donors think twice, Stimson said.
Vilsack, one of several people whom Kerry considered as his 2004 running mate before deciding to put Edwards on the ticket, has taken several steps toward a possible run for the White House. In 2005, Vilsack started a fundraising organization aimed at allowing him to help Democrats around the country this year and sow goodwill with influential party activists in key states. In its first year, the organization raised $2 million.
Stimson said the results suggest Iowa Democrats are more comfortable with Vilsack as governor than as president.
Mickey Blackwell, a home remodeling contractor who backs Edwards, wonders whether Vilsack is ready to compete on the national political stage.
"Can he hold his own? That's a question I can't answer," said Blackwell, 49, of Hiawatha. "I'm a Vilsack fan, but I've got to go with somebody that is recognized nationally, and I don't know that he's recognized nationally."
Vilsack was scheduled this week to make his first visit to New Hampshire, the traditional host of the first presidential primary in the nation. The Iowa caucuses kick off the nomination process for the Democratic and Republican parties.
Edwards was returning to Iowa today to campaign for Democratic congressional candidate Bruce Braley and Chet Culver, the party's newly chosen nominee for governor. It's Edwards' fifth visit of the year, following four Iowa trips in 2005 — the most of any 2008 Democratic presidential prospect.
Blackwell, in backing Edwards at this early stage of the race, said he sees a candidate who "is a very personable, very nice guy that seems like he really cares what's going on in this country."
Blackwell also likes Clinton, "but I don't think this country is ready for a female" in the White House. Kerry, he said, "is strong politically in the East, but I don't think he's strong enough across the rest of the country, and a lot of people think he's stuffy."
The poll shows 42 percent of likely caucus participants hold a very favorable opinion of Edwards. At the other extreme, 3 percent have a very unfavorable impression of him.
Vilsack isn't quite as popular, with 26 percent regarding him very favorably as a potential presidential candidate.
Vilsack supporter Kristin Hirst, an Iowa City Democrat, said he could follow the path that was taken in 1992 by another Democratic governor of a small state: Bill Clinton of Arkansas.
"I think he's been a good governor here. ... I like his policies. I think he has more national recognition, so I think he's a realistic candidate," said Hirst, 52, a part-time clerk. "He just needs to be visible."
Clinton ''not a shoo-in''
Speculation about the 2008 race centers to a large degree on Hillary Clinton, who now casts a bigger political shadow than her husband and is considered a front-runner nationally for the Democratic nomination. While she hasn't put Iowa on her travel schedule since 2003, she recently altered her position on ethanol by calling for a major research effort to boost the fuel's use. She has opposed ethanol mandates. Iowa is the nation's leading producer of the corn-based fuel.
Leanne Kennard, a retired teacher from West Des Moines, is among the 34 percent of likely caucus participants who have a very favorable impression of Clinton.
"I think she's so smart. I think she's got her head in the right place, and I think it's her time" to run for president, said Kennard, 71. "There's a lot of women that feel Hillary deserves a chance, and she might do a better job than some of the stuffed shirts that are running around out there."
While Kennard is also impressed with Edwards, "I think he missed his moment" in 2004, she said. As for Vilsack, she thinks he's very talented but lacks charisma.
The poll shows Clinton with a 14-point lead over Edwards in eastern Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. But Edwards holds double-digit leads over Clinton in the 3rd District, which includes Polk and Jasper counties, and the 4th District, which includes Dallas, Story and Warren counties.
Stimson and Georgetown University professor Stephen Wayne say it's the first poll they've seen with a Democrat other than Clinton topping the presidential preference list.
"I think it's very interesting that Hillary comes in second, that she only gets 26 percent of the vote," said Wayne. "That should be very encouraging to other Democrats, that she's not a shoo-in."
The handful of potential Democratic candidates with support in the low single digits in the Iowa Poll are former U.S. Sen. Tom Daschle of South Dakota, 3 percent; U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold of Wisconsin, 3 percent; former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner, 3 percent; U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana, 2 percent; and retired general Wesley Clark, 2 percent. Nine percent are unsure or prefer another person.
Every out-of-state Democrat listed in the poll except for Clinton has made several trips to Iowa since 2004.
Home-state views
Wayne said that the poll reflects name recognition of people seen as presidential caliber, more than popularity, and that the results show Iowans largely do not see Vilsack in that class.
"If here is a person that makes no secret of the fact that he is thinking about this, and only gets 10 percent, that is not very good," said Wayne, a leading scholar on presidential campaigns and the presidency.
A previous Iowa Poll, taken in January 2005, found that just 29 percent of Iowa adults thought it was a good idea for Vilsack to seek his party's nomination. They were outnumbered by the 55 percent who felt it was a bad idea.
It's not uncommon, however, for people to downplay the national leadership potential of their state's leaders.
A September 2002 poll in North Carolina showed 35 percent of the state's adults thought Edwards, who was then their junior U.S. senator, should run for president in 2004.
A June 1991 poll in Arkansas found that seven in 10 registered voters opposed the idea of Bill Clinton seeking the presidency. On the other hand, Clinton topped a list of 10 potential Democratic candidates, including U.S. Sen. Tom Harkin of Iowa, drawing the support of 32 percent of Arkansas Democrats.
Also in June 1991, three months before Harkin entered the presidential race, the Register's Iowa Poll showed 39 percent of Iowans thought he should run, compared with 44 percent who opposed the idea.
Harkin, as an announced candidate in December of that year, was the dominant choice of Iowans planning to take part in the Democratic caucuses the following February, drawing support from 68 percent, according to an Iowa Poll then. Other Democratic contenders essentially conceded the race in Iowa to Harkin, the favorite-son candidate, and made only token appearances in the state.
With potential candidates such as Edwards making repeat appearances in Iowa since the 2004 presidential election, rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008 are unlikely to step aside in Iowa should Vilsack decide to enter the race. Just by exceeding expectations in the Iowa caucuses, they could give their campaigns a boost.
Stimson, the national polling expert from North Carolina, cautioned against reading too much into early measurements of a race that's likely to take many twists and turns.
"You are talking about people who have not thought about their presidential choice recently at all," said Stimson, the former chairman of the University of Iowa's political science department.
